Quote of the Day

February 26, 2009

From who else but Eliezer Yudkowsky at Overcoming Bias:

I suspect there’s a Pons Asinorum of probability between the bettor who thinks that you make money on horse races by betting on the horse you think will win, and the bettor who realizes that you can only make money on horse races if you find horses whose probabilities seem poorly calibrated relative to superior knowledge.

After I looked up the term “Pons Asinorum” it seemed even more true!

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